New item Free shipping Pay Now
Add this item to Cart for a combined free shipping deal
Click to enlarge photo

Listing Detail Tabs

Delivery takes approximately 4-7 business days.

This title is In Stock in the Booktopia Distribution Centre. We will send you a confirmation email with a Tracking Code to follow the progress of your parcel when it ships.

Superforecasting
Author: Professor Philip E Tetlock

ISBN: 9780804136693
Format: Hardcover
Number Of Pages: 352
Published: 29 September 2015
Country of Publication: US
Dimensions (cm): 24.1 x 16.3 x 2.8
Description:
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people-including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer-who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intel...

Returns Policy:
30-day money back guarantee for return if the item is not as described, is damaged or is faulty. We do not offer a refund if you change your mind.

Customs Charges & Duties:
Orders over the value of $270 will be liable for customs charges, taxes including GST and brokerage costs which are the recipient's sole responsibility.
There were no answered questions or comments placed on this listing.
Your question and answer privileges have been disabled.
You must log in to view questions and answers on this listing. We recommend reading questions before you make any purchases.
Please log in to view questions and answers on this listing. We recommend reading questions before you make any purchases. Available only to approved bidders. You must be an authenticated member to ask questions Find out more about becoming authenticated. Your account is in debt Your current account balance is You must credit your account to use this feature.
Firearms Licence #
By entering my licence number, I confirm I am aware of my obligations under the Arms Act.
Transaction details may be provided to police in accordance with the Terms & Conditions.
Your current account balance is Please note you will lose your question and answer privileges if your account is in debt for more than 2 weeks. Credit your account.
I confirm that I am over 18 years old.
To prevent your personal details being misused please do not put emails or phone numbers in questions. Failure to comply may result in the suspension of your account. The seller cannot add a Buy Now price once bidding has started.

Shipping options

  • Free shipping within New Zealand  

Payment options