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Fire on Water

Description: The main theme of Fire on the Water is that conventional measures of military balance, employed by both the general public and many policy experts, underestimate the threat that China's military modernization poses to the U.S. position in the Asia-Pacific region. Within a decade, China's leaders will have the military power to hold at risk U.S. interest in East Asia. The U.S. needs to fashion a new and competitive strategy, one that better matches the strengths of the U.S. and its allies against China's vulnerabilities, in order to maintain a balance of power in the region and convince China's leaders to pursue a cooperative course. It is not obvious to many observers why a conflict in the region is plausible, or why the U.S. should bear the responsibility for maintaining a forward military presence in the region. China has rapidly emerged as a great power and by doing so, has acquired many vital interests around the world. Following the pattern set by other such episodes in history, China is also acquiring the military means to protect its new interests, a development that puts at risk the interests of China's neighbors and the United States. The U.S. forward military presence in the region is an increasingly difficult burden to sustain. But in the long run, this approach will be less costly and less risky than encouraging China's neighbors to balance China by themselves, an alternative that will very likely result in an unstable arms race and a conflict that will damage America's interests. While it will be in America's interest to maintain its position in the Asia-Pacific region, China's military modernization is making it much more difficult for the U.S. to do so. China's military strategy, centered on its rapidly-expanding land-based and anti-ship missile forces, is exploit