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House prices stand steady as survey shows optimism slump
Property Pulse Report - May 2026
By Gavin Lloyd 10 June 2026
New winter survey shows property optimism slumps
New Zealand’s national asking price held flat in May, down 0.2 per cent year-on-year but that headline figure conceals a tale of two markets, with southern and regional Aotearoa outperforming while Auckland and Wellington continued to soften.
The latest figures come as a new Trade Me Property survey shows a sharp reversal in price optimism, with the share of Kiwi expecting house prices to rise in the next 12 months having slumped.
A survey of around 2,000 New Zealanders, found 29 per cent of Kiwi expect house price growth in the coming year, down 18 per cent from findings in March (46%), while those expecting prices to decrease nearly tripled, rising from 6.5 per cent to 16 per cent.
Trade Me Property Customer Director Gavin Lloyd says the majority of respondents now expect prices to stay flat or fall.
“In March, nearly half of those surveyed expected prices to rise, but by May that optimism faded to fewer than three in ten. This is the sharpest drop in some time.”
May data shows the national average asking price fell 2.5 per cent to $833,800 from April, and remains flat (-0.2%) year-on-year.
“That national number looks calm on the surface, but underneath it there’s real divergence.
“Whether you live in the north or south island, a main centre, or more regionally, the data paints quite a different picture.”
Property prices May 2025 - May 2026
Buyer mindsets: More Kiwi looking to purchase but cost living tops concerns
Despite global uncertainty and house price scepticism, Kiwi buyers remain pragmatic with more than half of those surveyed believing it’s a good time to buy, and more looking to enter the property market.
“We saw a six per cent increase in the number of those buyers actively planning to buy within the next year, we also saw a seven per cent drop in those respondents who were not thinking about buying, showing falling price expectations to be a trigger for buyer activity with some looking to make their move now, rather than waiting on the sideline,” said Mr Lloyd.
“In March, the top concern for buyers was a lack of suitable properties on the market, but come May that number had dropped half a per cent, with the cost of living edging slightly ahead to take the top spot.”
Seller mindsets: Active sellers on the rise, while confidence dips
Active sellers, or those currently selling or planning to list within six months is up three per cent. At the same time, agreement that “now is a good time to sell” dropped close to five per cent.
“Listings on Trade Me Property remain strong, and naturally with more supply entering the market during a period of softening seller confidence, this places further downward pressure on price expectations.
“Price anxiety is showing itself to be a structural concern, not a seasonal one, with getting the right price the single most persistent worry for sellers across both March and May survey insights.”
Key figures at a glance
29% (May) expect prices to rise, down from 46% in March.
16% (May) expect prices to fall, up from 7% in March.
Active buyer intent (intention to purchase within 12-months) up 6% from March.
First-home buyer share of active buyers, up 3% from March.
Investor share of active buyers, down 3% from March
| Region | Property Price Index | YoY % change | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auckland | Auckland | $1,004,700 | $1,004,700 | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| Bay of Plenty | Bay of Plenty | $886,800 | $886,800 | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Canterbury | Canterbury | $721,100 | $721,100 | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Gisborne | Gisborne | $642,750 | $642,750 | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Hawke's Bay | Hawke's Bay | $719,550 | $719,550 | -3.9% | -3.9% |
| Manawatuū/Whanganui | Manawatuū/Whanganui | $588,450 | $588,450 | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Marlborough | Marlborough | $769,800 | $769,800 | 10.2% | 10.2% |
| Nelson/Tasman | Nelson/Tasman | $817,250 | $817,250 | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Northland | Northland | $708,800 | $708,800 | -6.0% | -6.0% |
| Otago | Otago | $845,450 | $845,450 | -1.8% | -1.8% |
| Southland | Southland | $552,550 | $552,550 | 10.2% | 10.2% |
| Taranaki | Taranaki | $645,350 | $645,350 | -5.4% | -5.4% |
| Waikato | Waikato | $819,750 | $819,750 | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| Wellington | Wellington | $766,100 | $766,100 | -6.0% | -6.0% |
| West Coast | West Coast | $516,550 | $516,550 | 13.8% | 13.8% |
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