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OCR holds at 2.25% as ceasefire adds new uncertainty
OCR updates and insights from Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson.
By Kelvin Davidson 8 April 2026
If you felt like the property market was holding its breath today, you weren't alone. As widely expected, the Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee held the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% this afternoon.
The decision mirrors the sentiment shared by Governor Breman in late March, signalling that the Bank is staying the course for now. However, for everyday Kiwi looking to buy or sell in Aotearoa, the steady rate doesn't necessarily mean a steady market.
The inflation tightrope
Kelvin Davidson, Chief Property Economist at Cotality, notes that while the Bank is holding firm, they are watching the horizon with a hawk's eye. "They’re firmly focused on the risks of ‘second round’ impacts such as higher wage negotiations which could see wider inflation (and expectations) become more embedded," says Kelvin.
Essentially, if wages and prices start a runaway climb, the Bank has signalled it will move "swiftly and decisively" with future OCR rises. On the other hand, the Bank is also weighing the risks of a drawn-out global conflict. If fuel shortages or reduced economic activity take hold, it could actually push inflation down, creating a complex balancing act for policymakers.
What it means for your mortgage
While the OCR hasn't moved, your bank might have. We have already seen a drift higher for mortgage rates recently, and a softer economy often acts as a handbrake on property activity.
"Ultimately, we’re still in wait-and-see mode on Iran, inflation, the economy, the official cash rate, and a whole lot more besides," Kelvin explains. The news of a two-week ceasefire earlier today adds yet another fast-moving element to the situation. While lasting peace could limit the impact on housing, the current mood across the Mainland and up to the Winterless North is one of caution.
The property outlook
For those hoping for a surge in property values, the next few months might require a reality check. With uncertainty prevailing, those tentative signs of rising values we’ve seen lately might just peter out or even head back into reverse.
"Given that there’s already a mood of caution amongst buyers and sellers in the housing market, it would not be a surprise to see recent tentative signs of rising property values peter out in the next few months," says Kelvin.
Wherever you are, the message is clear: keep a close eye on the data, but be prepared for a market that is taking its time to find its footing.
Past OCR Updates
Catch up on previous OCR updates and commentary:
OCR remains at 2.25%, February 2026
OCR slashed twelfth time in a row, November 2025
Reserve Bank's 'shock treatment': OCR slashed by 0.5%, October 2025
Author
Chief Property Economist, Cotality - cotality.com Kelvin joined Cotality (previously CoreLogic) in March 2018. He brings with him a wealth of experience, having spent 15 years working largely in private sector economic consultancies in both New Zealand and the UK.
In his role with Cotality, Kelvin’s focus is on keeping up to date with what’s going on in the property market and continually finding different ways for viewing and interpreting it. Kelvin’s economics background means that he knows his way around a spreadsheet, but more importantly he always puts more emphasis on providing the key insights and telling a story.
