Feature article

Property values drift down -0.4% as the market enters a holding pattern

Will house prices crash or surge? Neither likely.

Kelvin Davidson
Last updated: 16 September 2026 | 3 min read
AI

AI summary

New Zealand's property market is in a "holding pattern", with values drifting down a modest -0.4% in August. According to Cotality, this is not a renewed slump, as national values are only 1% lower than a year ago.

Regional markets are split, with Auckland and Wellington falling slightly while Christchurch and Queenstown show resilience.

Despite improved affordability, a boom is unlikely due to economic fragility and election uncertainty. The market will likely remain subdued until the labour market strengthens.

A downwards drift, not a renewed slump

Main centres split as regional resilience shines

Improved affordability, but no boom in sight

Author

Kelvin Davidson Kelvin Davidson
Chief Property Economist, Cotality