Feature article

Property values rise again in April

Is the winning streak about to end?

By Kelvin Davidson (Chief Property Economist, Cotality)

Last updated: 5 May 2026 | 4 min read

AI summary

New Zealand property values rose 0.1% in April, marking the third straight month of national growth. However, this modest increase masks a regional divide, with key markets like Auckland and Wellington experiencing slight price drops.

According to Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson, headwinds such as a slowing economy and rising mortgage rates are likely to cool the market. This could mean recent gains may soon flatten or even reverse, creating potential opportunities for first home buyers but caution for sellers.

If you felt like the property market was finally finding its feet, the latest data suggests you’re right, mostly. For the third month in a row, property values across Aotearoa have nudged upwards. The national median property value edged up by 0.1% in April, bringing the figure to $809,101. This follows a 0.1% rise in March and a more robust 0.4% jump in February.

However, according to Kelvin Davidson, Chief Property Economist at Cotality, this minor victory comes with a side of caution.

"It was perhaps a little surprising to see April’s increase, given the continued impacts of the Iran conflict on inflation, market sentiment, the economy, and mortgage rates," says Kelvin Davidson.

The regional divide

While the national headline looks positive, the view from the Super City and the capital is a bit different. When we look under the hood, the national rise was small, and key markets like Auckland and Wellington actually saw further slight drops.

While the resilience of the primary sector continues to support the economy and property values in provincial areas, the big smoke is feeling the pinch.

Headwinds on the horizon

The property market doesn't exist in a vacuum, and several factors are starting to weigh in. We are seeing a slowing economy and a gradual rise in mortgage rates - even before the RBNZ has made any moves with the OCR.

"This combination looks likely to bear down on property values very soon, and it would not be a surprise if recent gains petered out from May onwards - with new falls even possible," Kelvin Davidson warns.

What this means for you

Whether this news is a win depends entirely on where you sit in the market:

Sellers and Owners: Those hoping for strong capital growth or a high sale price right now might find the coming months disappointing as the momentum slows.
First Home Buyers: For Kiwi looking to get onto the ladder who feel secure in their jobs, a cooling market could present a better entry point, provided they can handle the potential for higher interest rates.
Investors: Many are currently sitting on the sidelines. "Investors looking to expand a portfolio may also be looking at buying opportunities, but there are no doubt some other would-be rental purchasers waiting to see the result of November’s election," says Kelvin Davidson.

All in all, the housing market has lifted a little to start the year, but as we head into the colder months, we could easily see prices move sideways or even dip back down.

Author

Kelvin Davidson

Chief Property Economist, Cotality

Chief Property Economist, Cotality - cotality.com Kelvin joined Cotality (previously CoreLogic) in March 2018. He brings with him a wealth of experience, having spent 15 years working largely in private sector economic consultancies in both New Zealand and the UK.

In his role with Cotality, Kelvin’s focus is on keeping up to date with what’s going on in the property market and continually finding different ways for viewing and interpreting it. Kelvin’s economics background means that he knows his way around a spreadsheet, but more importantly he always puts more emphasis on providing the key insights and telling a story.