Buying guide
Interest rate predictions 2026
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AI summary
Experts predict New Zealand interest rates have likely bottomed out. Short-term rates may dip slightly in early 2026 before plateauing or rising, while longer-term rates are already increasing.
Economist advice on fixing varies: Tony Alexander suggests a three-year term for certainty, while Opes Partners notes the historical value of a one-year rate. Since forecasts can change, it's crucial to get personalised advice from a mortgage broker to structure your loan for your specific circumstances.
| Bank | 2026 % | 2027 % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANZ | ANZ | 4.7 (June) | 4.7 (June) | 5.2 (June) | 5.2 (June) |
| ASB | ASB | Remaining near current levels | Remaining near current levels | May rise as economy improves | May rise as economy improves |
| BNZ | BNZ | Flat or increasing | Flat or increasing | Increasing | Increasing |
| Kiwibank | Kiwibank | Plateauing or increasing | Plateauing or increasing | Increasing | Increasing |
| Westpac | Westpac | Increasing | Increasing | Increasing | Increasing |
Our summary of interest rate predictions from the experts
ANZ
Westpac
ASB
BNZ
Kiwibank
A note about advertised interest rates*
Official cash rate predictions 2025 and 2026
Sources: Bank reports
Our summary of OCR forecasts
The million dollar question: How long should I fix my mortgage?
Opes Partners say the 1 year rate is a great option
Gareth Kiernan at Infometrics argues for shorter term fixes *with a caveat
New Zealand's biggest bank says interest rates are headed downard.
Tony Alexander reckons the three year is the rate
Nicole Pervan, GM of home lending at Kiwibank says it’s all about you
Jarrod Kerr, Chief Economist at Kiwibank, recommends splitting:
Consider break even analysis
The Reserve Bank plays a big part in influencing retail interest rates.
Get expert advice first
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