Feature article

Election on 7 November: what it means for property

From First Home Loans to capital gains tax, here's what the election could change for buyers and investors.

By Kelvin Davidson (Chief Property Economist, Cotality)

Last updated: 6 October 2026 | 4 min read

AI summary

The 7 November election could bring key changes for property buyers and investors, according to Cotality economist Kelvin Davidson.

For first home buyers, National proposes raising the income cap for low-deposit First Home Loans. For investors, Labour has kept a potential capital gains tax on the table.

One certainty is that mortgage interest tax rules are expected to remain unchanged regardless of the winner. Broader economic factors like the OCR and cost of living also continue to shape the market.

Kiwi head to the polls on 7 November. For anyone thinking about buying, selling or investing in property, the result could change more than you'd expect.

The housing market itself is fairly calm. Kelvin Davidson, Chief Property Economist at Cotality, describes it as being on "'rinse and repeat' at present." Sales are slowly easing, there are plenty of homes for sale and prices are "generally subdued."

But a quiet market doesn't mean nothing's changing. Some of the biggest shifts on the horizon depend on who wins in November.

First home buyers: a bigger door to low-deposit loans?

If you're saving for your first home, this one's worth watching.

National has said that if it wins, it will raise the income cap for low-deposit First Home Loans through Kāinga Ora. In plain terms, the cap sets how much you can earn and still get one of these loans. Raising it would mean more Kiwi could buy with a smaller deposit.

"First home buyers will obviously want to be keeping an eye on mortgage rates, as well as the election," says Kelvin.

Investors: capital gains tax is back on the table

For people who own more than one property, including 'Mum and Dad' investors, the election matters a lot.

"Capital gains tax also remains firmly on the table next year if Labour wins the election," says Kelvin.

A capital gains tax would mean paying tax on the profit you make when you sell an investment property. It would be one of the biggest changes to property investing in years.

One thing that won't change, either way

There is some certainty for investors. Labour announced in recent weeks that it won't change the current rules on claiming mortgage interest as a tax expense on rental properties.

Kelvin says that some investors "will at least be buoyed by the opposition's announcement."

So whichever way the vote goes, the interest rules look set to stay as they are.

Investors have plenty on their plate already

The election isn't the only pressure on investors. Kelvin says this group "still faces quite a few challenges," including:

Rents that aren't growing much
Higher mortgage rates recently
Rising council rates
Higher home insurance bills

Election promises are only part of the picture

It's worth remembering that election promises aren't guaranteed. New Zealand's governments are usually coalitions, so what ends up as law often depends on deals made between parties after the vote.

Some of the biggest pressures on the market won't be settled at the ballot box at all. Kelvin points to:

Cost of living: still squeezing household budgets
The rising Official Cash Rate (OCR): which feeds into mortgage rates
Jobs: "When the economic cycle turns and unemployment drops, movers tend to get more active again"
Global uncertainty: with "few signs that the US-Iran conflict is about to conclusively end anytime soon"

So what does it mean for you?

If you're buying or investing, it's worth knowing what each party is promising before 7 November, and thinking about how those promises could affect your plans.

As Kelvin puts it: "Although many of the headline indicators are in a holding pattern to a degree at the moment, this doesn't mean people can switch off."

Author

Kelvin Davidson

Chief Property Economist, Cotality

Chief Property Economist, Cotality - cotality.com Kelvin joined Cotality (previously CoreLogic) in March 2018. He brings with him a wealth of experience, having spent 15 years working largely in private sector economic consultancies in both New Zealand and the UK.

In his role with Cotality, Kelvin’s focus is on keeping up to date with what’s going on in the property market and continually finding different ways for viewing and interpreting it. Kelvin’s economics background means that he knows his way around a spreadsheet, but more importantly he always puts more emphasis on providing the key insights and telling a story.