Buying guide
OCR predictions for 2026 & 2027
What’s the Reserve Bank's next move?
AI summary
Economists from the Reserve Bank and major banks predict the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is near its lowest point. The consensus is for the rate to remain stable through 2026, with only a small chance of further cuts if economic data weakens.
A gradual increase is expected to begin in 2027. For homeowners, this suggests mortgage rates are also near their lows, making it a good time to consider fixing for longer terms or spreading risk across several fixed-rate periods.
| % | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March | March | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.34 | 2.34 | 2.73 | 2.73 |
| June | June | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.45 | 2.45 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Sep | Sep | 2.23 | 2.23 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 2.87 | 2.87 |
| Dec | Dec | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
We could be at the bottom of the cycle
As always, next moves depend on the data
| Forecaster | March 2026 | June 2026 | September 2026 | December 2026 | March 2027 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANZ | ANZ | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Kiwibank | Kiwibank | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.50 | 2.50 | - | - |
| Westpac | Westpac | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | - | - |
| ASB | ASB | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| BNZ | BNZ | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2,25 | 2,25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
Kiwibank
ANZ
BNZ
Westpac
ASB
OCR predictions NZ – our summary
The OCR could directly affect your level of disposable income.
What do NZ OCR predictions mean for interest rates?
How long should I fix my mortgage?
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