Buying guide
OCR predictions for 2026 & 2027
What’s the Reserve Bank's next move?
AI summary
Economists from the Reserve Bank and major banks agree the Official Cash Rate (OCR) has likely bottomed out. The consensus forecast is for the OCR to hold steady through 2026 before gradually rising in 2027.
For borrowers, this means mortgage interest rates are near their lowest point. With rates unlikely to fall further, consider fixing for longer terms or spreading your mortgage across multiple terms to manage risk. Always seek professional advice before making a decision.
| % | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March | March | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.34 | 2.34 | 2.73 | 2.73 |
| June | June | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.45 | 2.45 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Sep | Sep | 2.23 | 2.23 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 2.87 | 2.87 |
| Dec | Dec | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
We could be at the bottom of the cycle
As always, next moves depend on the data
| Forecaster | March 2026 | June 2026 | September 2026 | December 2026 | March 2027 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANZ | ANZ | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Kiwibank | Kiwibank | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.50 | 2.50 | - | - |
| Westpac | Westpac | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | - | - |
| ASB | ASB | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| BNZ | BNZ | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2,25 | 2,25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
Kiwibank
ANZ
BNZ
Westpac
ASB
OCR predictions NZ – our summary
The OCR could directly affect your level of disposable income.
What do NZ OCR predictions mean for interest rates?
How long should I fix my mortgage?
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