Buying guide

OCR predictions for 2026 & 2027

What’s the Reserve Bank's next move?

Last updated: 28 November 2025 | 7 min read

AI summary

Economists from the Reserve Bank and major banks like ANZ and Westpac agree the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is likely at or near its lowest point.

Forecasts suggest the OCR will hold steady through 2026, with only a small chance of another cut if economic data weakens. A gradual increase is expected to begin in 2027. For borrowers, this indicates mortgage rates are also near their lows, making it a good time to consider fixing for longer terms or splitting loans to manage risk.

Reserve Bank OCR predictions (August MPS)
%	2026	2027	2028
March	March	2.25	2.25	2.34	2.34	2.73	2.73
June	June	2.2	2.2	2.45	2.45	2.8	2.8
Sep	Sep	2.23	2.23	2.55	2.55	2.87	2.87
Dec	Dec	2.28	2.28	2.65	2.65	2.9	2.9

We could be at the bottom of the cycle

As always, next moves depend on the data

Bank economist OCR predictions %
Forecaster	March 2026	June 2026	September 2026	December 2026	March 2027
ANZ	ANZ	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.50	2.50
Kiwibank	Kiwibank	2.20	2.20	2.15	2.15	2.20	2.20	2.50	2.50	-	-
Westpac	Westpac	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	-	-
ASB	ASB	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.50	2.50
BNZ	BNZ	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2,25	2,25	2.25	2.25	2.50	2.50