Buying guide
OCR predictions for 2026 & 2027
What’s the Reserve Bank's next move?
AI summary
Most experts, including the Reserve Bank, believe the Official Cash Rate (OCR) has likely bottomed out at 2.25%. The consensus forecast is for a stable OCR through 2026, followed by gradual increases starting in 2027, though this depends on future economic data.
For homeowners, this suggests mortgage rates are at or near their lows. Now may be a good time to consider fixing for longer terms or splitting your mortgage across several terms to manage risk.
| % | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March | March | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.34 | 2.34 | 2.73 | 2.73 |
| June | June | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.45 | 2.45 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Sep | Sep | 2.23 | 2.23 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 2.87 | 2.87 |
| Dec | Dec | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
We could be at the bottom of the cycle
As always, next moves depend on the data
| Forecaster | March 2026 | June 2026 | September 2026 | December 2026 | March 2027 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANZ | ANZ | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Kiwibank | Kiwibank | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.50 | 2.50 | - | - |
| Westpac | Westpac | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | - | - |
| ASB | ASB | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| BNZ | BNZ | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2,25 | 2,25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
Kiwibank
ANZ
BNZ
Westpac
ASB
OCR predictions NZ – our summary
The OCR could directly affect your level of disposable income.
What do NZ OCR predictions mean for interest rates?
How long should I fix my mortgage?
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