Buying guide
Interest rate predictions from NZ economists: 2026 & 2027
We don’t have a crystal ball, but we’ve got the next best thing - the opinions of bank economists
AI summary
Economists predict NZ interest rates are rising through 2026-2027. There's a consensus the Official Cash Rate (OCR) will increase, but banks like ANZ and Westpac disagree on its peak.
One-year fixed rates are expected to reach the mid-to-high 5s, while longer terms could enter the 6s. Experts offer different strategies for fixing your mortgage, from one-year terms to splitting loans. Given the high uncertainty, seeking professional financial advice before making a decision is recommended.
| Bank | Current - June 2026 % | Late 2026 (% | Early 2027 (%) | Late 2027 (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANZ | ANZ | 4.7 (June) | 4.7 (June) | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Westpac | Westpac | 4.69 | 4.69 | Increasing | Increasing | Increasing | Increasing | Increasing | Increasing |
| ASB | ASB | 4.69 | 4.69 | Increasing | Increasing | Increasing | Increasing | Increasing | Increasing |
| BNZ | BNZ | 4.65 | 4.65 | Increasing | Increasing | Increasing | Increasing | Flat or increasing | Flat or increasing |
| Consensus | Consensus | Increasing | Increasing | Increasing | Increasing | Increasing | Increasing |
Our summary of interest rate predictions from the experts
ANZ
Westpac
ASB
Source: ASB Home Loan Rate Report 10 April 2026
BNZ
Kiwibank
A note about advertised interest rates*
| Forecaster | Current OCR (Actual) | 2026% Dec quarter | 2027 Dec quarter | 2028 % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBNZ | RBNZ | 2.25 (June 26) | 2.25 (June 26) | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| ANZ | ANZ | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | - | - | ||
| Westpac | Westpac | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.25 | 4.25 | - | - | ||
| ASB | ASB | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | - | - | ||
| BNZ | BNZ | 2.75 | 2.75 | 4.0 | 4.0 | - | - |
Our summary of OCR forecasts
The million dollar question: How long should I fix my mortgage?
Opes Partners say the 1 year rate is a great option
Gareth Kiernan at Infometrics argues for shorter term fixes *with a caveat
New Zealand's biggest bank says interest rates are headed downard.
Tony Alexander reckons the three year is the rate
Nicole Pervan, GM of home lending at Kiwibank says it’s all about you
Jarrod Kerr, Chief Economist at Kiwibank, recommends splitting:
Consider break even analysis
The Reserve Bank plays a big part in influencing retail interest rates.
Get expert advice first
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