Buying guide

OCR predictions for 2026 & 2027

What’s the Reserve Bank's next move?

Last updated: 28 November 2025 | 7 min read

AI summary

Economists from the Reserve Bank and major banks agree the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is likely at its lowest point. Forecasts suggest the OCR will remain stable through 2026 before gradual increases begin in 2027, depending on economic data.

This indicates mortgage rates are also near their lows. Homeowners might consider fixing for longer terms or splitting loans to manage risk, but should always seek professional advice before making a final decision.

Reserve Bank OCR predictions (August MPS)
%	2026	2027	2028
March	March	2.25	2.25	2.34	2.34	2.73	2.73
June	June	2.2	2.2	2.45	2.45	2.8	2.8
Sep	Sep	2.23	2.23	2.55	2.55	2.87	2.87
Dec	Dec	2.28	2.28	2.65	2.65	2.9	2.9

We could be at the bottom of the cycle

As always, next moves depend on the data

Bank economist OCR predictions %
Forecaster	March 2026	June 2026	September 2026	December 2026	March 2027
ANZ	ANZ	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.50	2.50
Kiwibank	Kiwibank	2.20	2.20	2.15	2.15	2.20	2.20	2.50	2.50	-	-
Westpac	Westpac	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	-	-
ASB	ASB	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.50	2.50
BNZ	BNZ	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2,25	2,25	2.25	2.25	2.50	2.50