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Official cash rate cuts may not necessarily drive a new housing boom

What underpins the OCR change and how might the housing market react?

Kelvin Davidson
Last updated: 3 September 2024 | 5 min read
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The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) has cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) due to slowing inflation and economic risks, signalling lower mortgage rates ahead. While this may boost market sentiment, a new housing boom is not guaranteed.

A short-term lift in property values is possible, but several factors could limit a strong, lasting upturn:

- Poor housing affordability remains a major hurdle.

- A high number of property listings are available.

- Rising unemployment may dampen buyer confidence.

- Debt-to-income (DTI) restrictions will increasingly bind prices.

Author

Kelvin Davidson Kelvin Davidson
Chief Property Economist, Cotality