Buying guide

House prices NZ: Property market trends and forecasts for 2024

Looking to buy a home or investment in NZ? Check out our NZ house price forecasts to make sure you’re informed.

Last updated: 7 September 2023

In March 2020, the average house price in Aotearoa New Zealand was under $750,000. By January 2022 that number had rocketed up to $1.06 million.

Since then the market has cooled but it’s certainly been a rollercoaster ride for first home buyers, homeowners and investors. To keep you informed, we’ve taken a closer look at the current state of the NZ housing market — and what the experts are predicting for the future.

Did the NZ Housing market crash?

When inflation kicked in in late 2022 and interest rates started to rise, suddenly house prices in NZ started to drop. What followed was a steady decline in average house prices, not necessarily a crash.

The average house price in NZ has been decreasing since November 2022. In fact, during the year to April 2023 property prices were down by 10.9% or almost $106,000. Since then the rate of price decreases has slowed and it appears we may be nearing the end of the crash.

House prices in NZ 2023

In July 2023 the national average asking price in New Zealand was $833,850, according to the Trade Me Property Price Index. The main centres in the north island saw the biggest housing market crashes, with Auckland down by 11% during the year to July to $1.13 million and Wellington down nearly $200,000 to $903,750.

Christchurch saw a smaller drop of just 2% and now has an average asking price of $673,150. The West Coast was the only market where average asking prices increased (by 0.8%) during this period.

Other strong performers were Nelson Tasman (1.1% decrease for the 12 months to July), Southland (3.1% decrease) and Taranaki (3.6% decrease).

Auckland was one of the hardest hit markets in the property downturn.

NZ Housing market predictions 2024

It’s impossible to predict house prices in NZ with certainty but a number of experts and economists have made informed forecasts:

  • An August 2021 Reuters poll of 11 property market analysts predicted a 5% NZ house price increase in 2024 and 6% in 2025.
  • ANZ has forecasted a 2.5% rise in house prices in 2024.
  • ASB and BNZ have both forecast a 7% rise in house prices in 2024.
  • Kiwibank is forecasting a 5% rise in house prices in 2024.
  • Westpac is forecasting a 7.7% rise in house prices in 2024.
  • HSBC is forecasting a 5% rise in house prices in 2024.

In an August 2 update CoreLogic explained that we have most likely reached the trough in the downturn but any recovery will be muted given that: “affordability remains stretched, mortgage rates aren’t set to drop anytime soon, and due to the prospect of caps on debt-to-income ratios for mortgages early in 2024.”

The Reserve Bank has also forecast an impending recovery for house prices in NZ. In fact, it expects prices will grow by 1.6% in Q3 2023 and then annual growth will level out to 3.6% by March 2024.

Consensus among experts: NZ housing market recovery has begun

The consensus among forecasters is that the NZ housing market downturn is over and the recovery has begun (or will begin in early 2024).

That means if you were considering buying a home or investment now could be the perfect time. Start your search on Trade Me Property today.